GRUMPY OLD MEN - SUPER SNOOZE TUESDAY

The crazy primary season is over - the same two old candidates as last time are being recycled -as food prices soar in grocery stores, home ownership remains out of reach for most, and endless surges of migrants are overwhelming the borders... the resurgence of Former President Donald Trump gliding toward the Republican nomination for president as many voters believe President Biden’s policies have hurt them.

Poll after poll on the political site 538 - with its remarkable record of predicting winners - shows a majority of voters disapprove of President Biden’s job performance and that Former Republican Donald Trump is on the path to reclaim the Presidency - after winning 14 of the 15 state contests on Super Tuesday - every state except Vermont - the sole state that went to Haley.

Nikki Haley has left the hopes of centrist Republicans in shreds ...Nikki Haley has left the building.

President Biden won the Democratic voters in every state - without any real Democratic competitor -  yet poll after poll shows that Democrats are deeply divided about 81-year-old President Biden leading the party forward and that Biden should not be the nominee in 2024 - with opposition strongest among voters younger than 45 years old.

Trump also won 97 percent of those who voted for him four years ago and then cast a ballot for Trump in the recent state primaries. In contrast, Biden won only 83 percent of his 2020 voters - with 10 percent saying they now back Trump.  Interesting findings in the polling is that historical groups that Democrats held - working-class voters, voters of color and Hispanic voters is eroding - working class voters, voters of color and especially Hispanics are now choosing to support Trump.

"...Biden won 72 percent of those voters in 2020, according to exit polling, providing him with a nearly 50-point edge over Trump. The Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden only narrowly leading among nonwhite voters who did not graduate from college: 47 percent to 41 percent.... only 23 percent of Democratic primary voters said they were enthusiastic about Biden — significantly more Democrats said they were either dissatisfied or angry at Biden being the leader of the party (32 percent) than Republicans said same about  Trump (18 percent)."

Nationally, pollling reveals that both Trump and Biden are unpopular in the general electorate. Trump has only 44 percent favorable rating but Biden fared worse, at 38 percent.  Moreover - unhappiness with the state of the country is overtly hurting Biden’s prospects. Two-thirds of the country feels the nation is headed in the wrong direction — Trump is winning 63 percent of those voters.

“If we get Trump for another four years, we get a little better on economics,” said Oscar Rivera, a 39-year-old independent voter who owns a roofing business in Rochester, N.Y.

Trump’s economic policies were viewed more favorably by voters than Biden’s. 40 percent of voters said Trump’s policies had helped them personally, compared to only 18 percent who felt the same on  Biden’s policies. The share of voters who believe the nation is on the right track remains only 24 percent. Only 12 percent of independent voters said Biden’s policies had helped them, compared to 43 percent who said his policies had hurt them.

Rivera, who is Puerto Rican, said he doesn’t like the way Trump talks about immigration and the southern border, but is planning to vote for him anyway. “Biden? I don’t know,” Rivera said. “It looks like we’re weak, America’s weak. We need someone stronger.”

Biden and Trump are split even among independent voters, drawing 42 percent each. The Times/Siena poll revealed how Trump has cut into more traditional Democratic constituencies while holding his ground among Republican groups. The poll showed Trump edging out Biden among Latinos, and Biden’s share of the Black vote is shrinking. The gender gap is also no longer benefiting Democrats. Women, who strongly favored Biden four years ago, are now equally split, while men gave Trump a nine-point edge. 

The country remains divided on domestic and international issues. By a narrow margin, more voters favor making it more difficult for migrants at the southern border to seek asylum (49 percent to 43 percent). When Trump and Biden made dueling appearances at the border last week; illegal border crossings set record highs at the end of 2023.

As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues into its fifth month, 40 percent of voters said they sympathized more with Israel compared to 24 percent who said they sympathized more with the Palestinians. Trump was winning 70 percent of those who backed Israel primarily; Biden was winning 68 percent of those who sided with the Palestinians, even as he has faced demonstrations and a protest vote over his pro-Israel stance.

With the same two old candidates as last time are being recycled these two old men will talk their usual partisan lines  - the return of the reluctant Democrat is the one reason the Biden campaign has been optimistic despite the poor polling numbers - and eventually flip, choose Biden as the Trump and Biden rematch enters the later stages in the campaign.

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